Scroll to Section:

There is an extensive discussion about the connections between climate change related disasters and armed conflicts like civil wars. JONATHAN DONGES explains in this video how the research team looked at this relationship in more detail. Their new approach connects natural disasters with large economic effects, potentially related conflicts as well as the socioeconomic contexts. The findings show that in countries with a high ethnical fractionalization the likelihood of armed conflict related to natural disasters is particularly high. This relationship is surprisingly stronger than all other socioeconomic issues like poverty, inequality or the country’s conflict history. The study also reveals a particularly strong impact of heat waves and droughts on a potential armed conflict. The implications of this research call for a more synchronized approach of climate and security policies.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21036/LTPUB10336

Researcher

Jonathan Donges is a postdoctoral researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany, as well as Stordalen Scholar at the Planetary Boundaries Research Lab at the Stockholm Resilience Centre of Stockholm University, Sweden. Furthermore, he co-heads PIK’s flagship project COPAN on Coevolutionary Pathways in the Earth system (www.pik-potsdam.de/copan) which investigates the mid- and long-term coevolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of the Earth system and its relationship to planetary boundaries. For his PhD thesis on Earth system analysis Donges received the Donald L. Turcotte award for outstanding dissertations in nonlinear geophysics from the American Geophysical Union, the Friedrich-Hirzebruch dissertation award (2nd mention) of the German National Academic Foundation and the Wladimir Peter Köppen Prize of the Cluster of Excellence CliSAP, Hamburg.

Institution

Potsdam‐Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

At the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), researchers in the natural and social sciences from all over the world work closely together to study global change and its impacts on ecological, economic and social systems. Researchers examine the earth system's capacity for withstanding human interventions and devise strategies and options for a sustainable development of humankind and nature. Interdisciplinary and solution-oriented approaches are a distinctive characteristic of the institute. PIK generates fundamental knowledge for sustainable development primarily through data analysis and computer simulations of the dynamic processes in the earth system, but also of social processes. PIK members publish their research findings in international publications and advise policymakers in Germany and abroad. In addition to the Federal Government of Germany, the European Commission and a number of other governments, international organizations like the World Bank also benefit from the institute´s expertise. The historic buildings of the institute and its high-performance computer are located on Potsdam’s Telegrafenberg campus (Source: PIK).  
Show more

Original publication

Armed-conflict Risks Enhanced by Climate-related Disasters in Ethnically Fractionalized Countries

Schleussner Carl-Friedrich, Donges Jonathan F., Donner Reik V. and Schellnhuber Hans Joachim
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published in 2016

Reading recommendations

Temperature and Violence

Lobell David B., Miguel Edward, Cane Mark A., Burke Marshall, Hsiang Solomon M., Meng Kyle C. and Satyanath Shanker
Nature Climate Change
Published in 2014

Event Coincidence Analysis for Quantifying Statistical Interrelationships Between Event Time Series

Donges Jonathan F., Donner Reik V., Schleussner C. F. and Siegmund Jonatan F.
The European Physical Journal Special Topics
Published in 2016

Civil Conflicts Are Associated with the Global Climate

Cane Mark A., Hsiang Solomon M. and Meng Kyle C.
Nature
Published in 2011

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

Miguel Edward, Burke Marshall and Hsiang Solomon M.
Science
Published in 2013

Climate, Conflict, and Social Stability: What Does the Evidence Say?

Burke Marshall and Hsiang Solomon M.
Climatic Change
Published in 2014

Climate Change 2014 –Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Regional Aspects

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Published in 2014

Climate Change and Violent Conflict

others, Scheffran Jürgen, Brzoska Michael, Kominek Jasmin, Schilling Janpeter and Link P. Michael
Science (Washington)
Published in 2012

The Collapse of Complex Societies

Tainter Joseph
Published in 1990

Is Climate Change a Driver of Armed Conflict?

Theisen Ole Magnus, Gleditsch Nils Petter and Buhaug Halvard
Climatic Change
Published in 2013

Civil Conflict Sensitivity to Growing-season Drought

Buhaug Halvard, von Uexkull Nina, Croicu Mihai and Fjelde Hanne
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published in 2016
Show more

Beyond